Australia’s Hail Risk Is Changing: Bigger, More Frequent Storms Ahead

A new UNSW study reveals that as our climate warms, hailstorms across major Australian cities are expected to become both larger and more frequent—heightening risks for communities, infrastructure and sporting venues alike.

What the Science Says

• In future climate conditions—approximately 2.8 °C above pre‑industrial temperatures (projected for 2080–2100)—hailstorms could increase by nearly 30% in Sydney and Canberra, and by around 15% in Brisbane.

• Meanwhile, other major cities such as Melbourne, Perth and Kalgoorlie may see a significant rise in “giant” hail events, with 10 cm stones, which were historically rare, becoming more common.

• In Melbourne, hail of ~10 cm in size—once expected every 20 years—may occur once every three years under the warmer scenario. Similar trends are projected for other cities.

  Expert Insight

“In Melbourne, very large, 10 cm hailstones were expected once every 20 years … but in a warmer future, it’s once every three years.”
– Dr Tim Raupach, lead researcher, UNSW

He stresses that current Australian building standards do not account for hail resilience, leaving many structures vulnerable to increasingly severe storms

Want to Dive Deeper?

Read the full ABC News report and UNSW commentary for more on the methodology and findings below